After years of delays and cost overruns in the GPS modernization program, the DOD system is in danger of falling out of date and dropping below the threshold for the number of satellites needed to ensure reliable positioning data for military and civilian users.
About eight years ago the Air Force began a multi-billion-dollar program to modernize the Global Positioning System (GPS) from top to bottom. It is developing a new generation of satellites, a new ground control system and new end-user devices for the military. But after years of delays and cost overruns the Defense Department system is in danger of falling out of date, according to a report from the Government Accountability Office.
The first launch of the new GPS III satellites is not expected until May of 2017, four years late. New Military GPS User Equipment won’t be fully deployed until 2025 and the new code for it has not yet been developed.
The key to the modernization is the new Operational Control System (OCX). Neither the new satellites nor user equipment will be any good without this software, and that project is a mess.
“By any measure, OCX development has been mired in development difficulties resulting in steady cost growth and schedule delays,” GAO examiners wrote. “Moreover, despite a seven month pause ending in mid-2014, OCX has yet to turn the corner on resolving the problems that have affected the program since development began in 2010.”
OCX development costs and its schedule have both doubled and the end doesn’t seem to be in sight. “OCX issues appear to be persistent and systemic, raising doubts whether all root causes have been adequately identified, let alone addressed, and whether realistic cost and schedule estimates have been developed.”
GPS is a satellite-based timing, positioning and navigation system maintained by DOD and used by the military to guide troop movements, assist with logistics support and situational awareness, guide missiles and bombs, and synchronize communications networks. It also has become almost ubiquitous in civilian life, integrated into everything from cars and cell phones to cameras and wearable gear. There is a generation of drivers who probably could not find their way home with a paper map (much less refold it).
The modernization program has run into trouble because the Air Force did not follow acquisition best practices, GAO says. The OCX development contract was awarded to Raytheon before there had been a preliminary design review. “In addition, key requirements, particularly for cybersecurity, were not well understood by the Air Force and contractor at the time of contract award. The contractor . . . experienced significant software development challenges from the onset, but the Air Force consistently presented optimistic assessments of OCX progress to acquisition overseers.”
The good news about GPS is that a lot of the older satellites have lasted longer than expected and there now are about 40 in orbit, far more than the minimum of 24 needed to provide accurate worldwide coverage. But the older satellites eventually will die, and the current generation of operational control software cannot control the newest satellites now in orbit, so these can’t replace the older satellites until OCX begins to come online. The current estimate for that is 2020. If it is later than that, the Air Force probably will not be able to maintain the 24 working satellites needed, GAO says
GPS is a wonderfully complex and useful system, so reliable that we have come to take it for granted. But if the next generation of hardware and software does not come online soon, we might find ourselves folding those roadmaps again.