In 2010 the Energy Department’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory studied the possible impact of electromagnetic disruptions of the nation’s power grid. It looked at a 1921solar storm, described as a once-in-a-century event, and concluded that if such a storm occurred today it “could damage or destroy over 300 bulk power system transformers interrupting service to 130 million people with some outages lasting for a period of years.”
That was the testimony of Joseph McClelland, director of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Infrastructure Security, before a House panel earlier this week.
Natural events do not follow human schedules. But that once-in-a-century solar storm occurred 95 years ago this month. Statistically the clock is ticking toward another major event, which made the hearing before the House Homeland Security subcommittee on Oversight and Management Efficiency timely. Unfortunately, the government’s efforts to prepare for such an event were described by subcommittee chairman Scott Perry (R-PA) as “at best, a mixed bag.”
Research and studies are being done by the departments of Energy and Homeland Security, and plans are being made. But there is little coordination and less leadership in the efforts, according to the General Accountability Office.
Electromagnetic threats come in two forms:
• The Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) created by the detonation of a nuclear device, or by a non-nuclear device.
• Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMD) resulting from naturally occurring solar weather events, such as a solar storm.
“Today’s power grid and information networks may be more vulnerable to EMP than those of a few decades ago, as the grid transitions from an analog system to a digital system,” said Brandon Wales, director of DHS’s Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis.
Just what the impact of an attack would be is difficult to determine, Wales said. “Any electric power outage resulting from an EMP event would ultimately depend upon a number of unknown factors and effects to assets that are challenging to accurately model.”
There are fewer variables in considering natural disruptions, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Joseph McClelland. “GMD disturbances are inevitable with only the timing and magnitude subject to variability,” he said.
Even if we can keep our enemies at bay, we still are subject to the whims of nature.
FERC has approved “a mandatory reliability standard that requires certain entities to implement operational procedures to mitigate the effects of GMD events.” The commission also is planning a Strategic Transformer Reserve to identify the number, type, cost, and location of equipment needed to mitigate the impact of disruptions. DHS is providing some guidance and support to industry and government, but the work is divided among a variety of agencies, no lead for the effort has been identified to work with industry, and there is little coordination with DOE, according to GAO’s Chris P. Currie.
Given that the vast majority of the nation’s power grid and other critical infrastructure is privately owned and operated, government cannot manage this threat by itself. But agencies including DHS and DOE have critical roles to play in helping industry. Winter is coming; we need to prepare now.